In a Tweet On June 15, Yann Allemann and Jan Happel highlighted three BTC price metrics that are anything but bearish.
Metrics echo Bitcoin’s “big retracements and rallies”
The BTC/USD pair hit local highs of $31,000 in April, but has since fallen around 20%. Sentiment has taken a hit in the process, and bearish price predictions have become the norm in recent weeks.
Although recent events have put additional pressure on the market, Allemann and Happel see at least three good reasons for optimism.
Several on-chain indicators, they revealed, are now looking eerily like they did in Q3 2020, just before the BTC/USD pair smashed its old 2017 all-time high of $20,000.
“The resemblance to September 4, 2020 is crazy…”they wrote in part of the comment.
Leading the lineup is the classic Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures how overbought or oversold the BTC/USD pair is at a specific price point.
The daily RSI currently measures 35, as confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. This is its lowest reading since early March, just before Bitcoin’s most recent rally that led to the $31,000 spike a month later.
“The RSI is at levels that led to major retracements and rallies,” the post explains.
BTC/USD 1-day candlestick chart on Bitstamp with RSI. Source: TradingView
next, Allemann and Happel highlighted the Cipher B readings for Bitcoin, which come from a collection of algorithms that converge to provide signals for, among other things, when to buy dips during bull markets.
“Cipher B wave trends are at levels that have given rise to significant pullbacks and rallies,” they repeat.
Lastly, the appropriately named Bitcoin Risk Signal is back in its position on September 4, 2020. The Risk Signal predicts the probability of a major BTC price drop, and at that point saw a spike to “high risk” before pulling back.
What happened next was a flat Signal Risk reading for successive months, while the BTC/USD pair broke out.
Bitcoin risk signal chart. Source: Glassnode
Hodlers big and small increase their exposure to BTC
Elsewhere, Glassnode pointed to encouraging signs that suggest investors are keeping the faith for the long term.
For top on-chain analyst Checkmate, the buildup among existing hodlers remains impressive.
“Pretty Pessimistic Out There” tweeted about sentiment on June 15.
“Meanwhile, Bitcoin shrimp, crabs and fish (wallets
The accompanying graphs showed the so-called “absorption rates” for various groups of hodlers by wallet size.
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