Bitcoin (BTC) emerges from a choppy macro week to circle some classic trend lines near $26,000. What could happen now?
After some brutal tests of traders’ resolve over the past seven days, BTC price remains determined to stay on familiar ground.
Market participants are in a “wait and see” mode as a lack of clear direction characterizes the largest cryptocurrency at the start of a new trading week.
US holidays mean traditional markets won’t open until June 20, giving at least a day of grace before surprises occur.
However, there are still many things to deal with from last week, including BlackRock’s unveiling of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Now it is rumored that Fidelity Investments could follow.
What will it take for the BTC price to trend? Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the top topics now being discussed among traders and analysts.
No relief for bitcoin traders
The last weekly close of the BTC/USD pair has been little changed in the last seven days.
Just above USD 26,000, the pair remains “sideways” and has overcome a number of potential volatility triggers throughout the week.
The slide to new three-month lows was short-lived, however, and now traders are cautiously awaiting further signals on the direction, although they are not yet leaning towards a bearish view.
“I’ll stay long as long as we don’t see signs of a reversal,” said crypto tony in a summary of your position for the day.
“I’m looking for that trend line test in the $26,900 area, and following a turn from that we have $27,300 to watch then up and away. Step by step we move.”
Your colleague Koala argued that the bullish and bearish extremes were centered around a $4,000 corridor, and that the lows would likely be cleared before returning to $27,000..
“A set of equal highs and equal lows. I think we run equal lows before equal highs”, argument.
“The demand zone is where I am interested in bidding for a run to the upside (invalidation is pretty obvious). If the demand holds up, we will go to the $27,000 zone. If not, USD 23,000.”
For Credible Crypto, the potential range was narrower: $25,500 was the lower bound.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see us chop between the RED and GREEN regions for another few weeks. If there is any move above $28,500, we will have broken a key market structure level which would imply that our corrective structure is complete and we may have started a new impulsive move.” wrote in part from a recent analysis along with an explanatory chart.
“A short-term move below GREEN is fine, because (as in previous posts) my HTF bias is bullish above $20,000. With that being said, I only expect that we go below GREEN due to some short-term volatility, driven by fundamental events. Let’s see what the next few weeks have in store for us.”
the trader Pierre marked two trend lines in the form of 4 hours and 1 day as support and resistance levels, respectively..
Very elaborate analysis shared yesterday:
– Must hold = H4 trend
– Must break = D1 downtrend (same since +29.0k)
– Chopfest in between pic.twitter.com/h9lhnjKImH
— Pierre – I will never DM you first (@pierre_crypt0) June 19, 2023
Very elaborate analysis shared yesterday:
– Must be maintained = trend H4
– Must break = D1 downtrend (same from +29,000)
– Chopfest between pic.twitter.com/h9lhnjKImH
– Pierre – I will never DM you first (@pierre_crypt0) June 19, 2023
Speculators are in the crosshairs
As for where the BTC price might fall if bearish momentum were to return, on-chain analysis offers a clearer view of support.
For analytics firm Glassnode, Recent price action has centered on a key break-even point for Bitcoin’s most speculative investor cohort..
Called “short-term holders (STH)”, they correspond to wallet entitieswho have held coins for 155 days or less.
The aggregate cost base (CB) of these entities – the price at which they bought the coins in that 155-day period – currently stands at $26,400.approximately equal to the 200-week MA.
“Recent volatility in bitcoin price action has been anchored around the $26,400 short-term holder codebase,” argument glassnode in a Twitter post over the weekend.
“This suggests that the STH-CB remains a fundamental level for determining both the direction and momentum of the local trend.”
Below $26,400, STHs start to find unrealized losses on their investmentas shown in an accompanying graph.
Glassnode has previously noted the importance of STH-CBs, which along with the equivalent for investors over 155 days, known as long-term (LTH) holders, has become a source of interest. in particular after the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022.
The macroeconomy cools off after an intense week
Since the US markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on June 19, macro catalysts for crypto markets lurking later in the week.
Although they are not as numerous or significant as those of the previous week, they still have the potential to trigger surprise volatility.
Among them is the Federal Reserve, whose Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before Congress over two days beginning June 21..
Following the recent decision by the Fed to pause raising interest rates, but leaving the door open to resume them later, markets will closely watch Powell’s speech for clues as to what might be ahead.
As a climax to the week, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data will be released on June 22.
Among market participants, the focus is both on bitcoin’s correlation to traditional risk assets and the impact of macroeconomic factors.
“Not only has BTC lost the positive correlation with SPX and NDX, but we have also lost the inverse with DXY,” he pointed last week trader Josh Olszewiczreferring to bitcoin’s interaction with the S&P 500 index, the Nasdaq and the US dollar, respectively.
Credible Crypto suggested that the recent disparity between BTC and SPX performance – sideways against what several sources have called a “bull market rally” – may yet end in favor of the bulls..
Don’t mistake consolidation for weakness.
Like a student who gets a good nights sleep before a major exam- the more we rest before the big day the better we… pic.twitter.com/FoCrvOskD1
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) June 18, 2023
We have seen quite a few comments lately about BTC “weakness” versus SPX trading markets and how this is bad for cryptocurrencies. Let’s not confuse consolidation with weakness. Like a student who sleeps well before a big exam, the more we rest before the big day, the better… pic.twitter.com/FoCrvOskD1
Cointelegraph has often reported on the ups and downs of bitcoin macro correlations in recent years. A notable theme post-2020 has been strength during periods of Fed liquidity injections and vice versa..
GBTC gets a boost from BlackRock
Bitcoin may be offering little inspiration, but one of its biggest investment vehicles is experiencing a resurgence in its own right.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has started a new attempt to reduce its steep discount to the BTC spot price..
GBTC has traded at this discount – which is in fact a negative premium – since Bitcoin’s all-time highs in 2021. Since then, it has hit -50%.
Last week’s announcement of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) filing on the spot price of bitcoin by BlackRock seemed to induce a change of mood, and on June 17, the cousin had decreased to -36.6%.
As Cointelegraph reported, the changes came despite arguments about the true status of BlackRock’s offer; some claimed that it would not be a spot ETF, which is still prohibited in the US..
Other than that, GBTC’s recent performance remains impressive: 36.6% is within striking distance of new 2023 highs for the premium.
Buyers have also made themselves known, leaving top client ARK Invest to react. ARK currently owns more than 5.3 million shares of GBTC.
This week, new speculation about an ETF offering centers on asset manager Fidelity Investments, details of which are not yet known.
“I was long GBTC before this, but this makes me more confident that it was the right move,” reacted investor mike alfred.
Market optimism is tested again and again
Crypto market sentiment was spooked last week thanks to the combined ramifications of US legal action against exchanges and changes in macroeconomic policy.
a look at Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index shows how recent events have left their mark: June 15 saw the lowest score since mid-March.
Although this suggests a more “fearful” environment than at any time since, the Fear and Greed Index is surprisingly stable. Those lows stood at 41/100, barely “fearful,” and subsequently returned to the stable “neutral” range..
As of June 19, the index measures 47/100.
In addition, the analysis company Santiment cited the BlackRock ETF story as potential fuel for the markets, specifically because some reactions were hostile..
For Santiment, “the more negativity surrounding this story, the greater the probability of a continued rise” in the crypto markets, explained last week.
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