New research predicts that Bitcoin “consolidation” could end in July, as optimism about a BTC price breakout returns.
QCP Capital: Bitcoin Consolidation “Has Worked Perfectly”
Bitcoin’s price has hovered between $26,000 and $31,000 since mid-March, but analysts are increasingly considering the sideways action over.
QCP Capital is among them and predicts a turnaround as soon as the end of the month.
This, he argues, it is thanks to the disappearance of the “sideshow” of the US debt ceiling, leaving Bitcoin closely mimicking its consolidation and breakout phase as of 2020.
“With the passage of the debt ceiling bill in the House and Senate, which extends the ceiling to January 2025, we can now all move on and not have to worry about any political spectacle until the presidential election. of the US next year,” he wrote.
“This means that we are now back to our regular programming of proper macro and crypto narratives.”
For QCP, the price levels may be different, but the underlying behavior is the same in 2023 as it was at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
By then, the Federal Reserve unleashed a gigantic $4 trillion worth of liquidity injection, boosting risky assets and ultimately sending Bitcoin to new all-time highs.
“In March 2020 we were on the brink of a massive price break below 5k when the Fed unleashed the liquidity spigot, resulting in prices rising exponentially as we approached the halving cycle the following year.” he wrote, citing a previous edition from his “Just Crypto” newsletter series.
“Similarly, in March 2023, we were about to break below $20,000 in BTC as a result of the risk banking crisis, when the Fed again unleashed the liquidity spigot to push us back above $30,000. , as we head into the next halving cycle next year.”
If the relationship holds, the next phase is obvious: a sharp exit from the trading range, with QCP positioning long option plays.
“This consolidation has played out perfectly so far, but we expect to soon be nearing the end sometime this month. As a result, we recommend positioning for the next big move through long 3m and 6m chokes here, with a bias towards the side of long call options”he added.
An accompanying chart showed the month of June as a hot spot for both BTC and ETH volatility as of 2019.
Betting on a BTC price breakout
As Cointelegraph reported, other signs coming from Bitcoin point to a new paradigm soon.
These include an on-chain metric tracking hodler behavior, which in late May put BTC/USD in a “transition” phase away from “capitulation” and on the path to “euphoria.” .
Multiple market participants, meanwhile, argue that BTC price action is at a critical stage, with a decision on its trajectory now overdue.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.
Investments in crypto assets are not regulated. They may not be suitable for retail investors and the entire amount invested may be lost. The services or products offered are not directed or accessible to investors in Spain.